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I was recently reflecting on past decisions—both minor and monumental. A decision can be as mundane as selecting an electronic component or as significant as launching a full-scale business and product development initiative. Either way, hidden assumptions eventually reveal themselves and bite you or your team in the back. Sometimes the big decisions are easierContinue reading “The Illusion of Adequate Information”

Fact, Faith, and the Space Between Companies, and people, like to think their beliefs update the moment new evidence arrives with a clean patch, applied and closed. In practice, belief revision is closer to correcting a course at sea than installing a software update. You don’t jump straight from “the chart is wrong” to “recalculateContinue reading “The Spectrum of Truth”

Managers Are Gamblers and Accountants Are Historians Robust action under uncertainty is recommendable. Yet, how are facts, beliefs, opinions, expectations and so forth similar and different and how to separate the essential from the unlikely to reach that set of Robust action alternatives and ultimately the plan and action? When someone in a product orContinue reading “Facts Are Hindsight. Roadmaps Are Beliefs.”

Companies – probably anyone – would like to make informed, robust decisions in the face of uncertainty that result in reasonable outcomes in all or most plausible future scenarios. In other words strategic, flexible measures that accomplish immediate goals while deliberately preserving long-term options. Jagged intelligence refers to the uneven performance of AI models. TheyContinue reading “Doubt, jagged intelligence and Robust Action”

The previous posts have been about architecture, system design, complexity, computational cost, and other technical and intrinsic matters about building autonomous systems. This installment focuses on the people, and what beliefs, assumptions, expectations could mean to enterprise employees. Their work, incentives, business success, and company performance under uncertainty is discussed. The result is an approximateContinue reading “Belief management for people”

Beliefs, assumptions, scenarios expectations, and other similar expressions refer to possible futures events with some scope, time, likelihood, and potential outcomes and results. A company’s World Model should be populated with such information. We call those beliefs, and propose that they are entered in a Belief Manager. This potential system component is outlined in theContinue reading “World Model is a set of Beliefs”

The previous post about autonomous systems discussed World Models in a narrow domain. My goal is to outline, understand and eventually build automated workflows in enterprise environments. The following discussion about Enterprise World Models, Belief Management and Robust Actions v.s. perfect foresight is the next conceptual step

I have spent time in figuring out how the general CMLS architecture would apply to workflows in an enterprise. To get to an understanding I ended doing intellectual – or at least mental – circles and spirals, and needed to start from basics. So here are a few pages of a students journey through enterpriseContinue reading “Thinking about World Models”